Survivor - April 27th - "Perilous Scramble"

Cafe Society
41

Bridge. Did it sound like “brick” to you?

Terry should’ve been suspicious of Cirie when she cheered for Aras in the IC. He even gave her a “WTF” stare (unless that was edited in for effect only). I’m not sure what he could’ve done differently, but he should have known she wasn’t trustworthy wrt Aras. And remember who she picked first to go with her when she won the RC? Aras.

I don’t know why the 3 of them didn’t just vote off Shane. He’s as big a threat as Courtney in terms of who you’d want to to up against in the final 2. Now they’ve pissed off Courtney and Shane, from a jury perspective.

42

Very much so. As I recall, she started the aphorism, and then kinda stumbled over it. I heard “brick” very clearly, tho I admit I may have been projecting my impression of her as a worthless waste of space who is dumb enough to even screw up perhaps the most common aphorism ever…
Didn’t tape it myself, so if anyone with TIVO cares to check it out.

43

He won this week’s Reward Challenge, thereby activating the Car Curse. Since the beginning of “Survivor,” no player who has won the fuglymobile of the season in the Automobile Reward Challenge has gone on to ultimately win the million. This includes Boston Rob and Ian (which, at least Ian got a brand new candy-apple-red Corvette out of the deal and not something lame and stupid, like an Aztek or an Avalanche or some other such nonsense).

Anyway, all good students of “Survivor” know about the Car Curse, and most really good players respect it. Others claim that they are not superstitious, and therefore they take the risk. There have been Rumours that Chris from Vanuata, Tom from Palau, and Rafe & Danni from Guatemala deliberately tanked the Automobile Challenge so they didn’t have to deal with it.

Oh, and RikWriter: Me too. I was just sayin’.

44

I don’t get why Terry should be worried, though. Most of the people on the jury will be ex-Casaya, and they’ll be there because some Casaya folk voted them off. Terry will, not matter what, go up against an ex-Casaya if he makes it to the final 2. Who has a good chance of beating him if he makes it to the end? I think everyone will respect him for being pretty much a straight shooter, and a damn good player, too.

I don’t get the hate people here have for Terry. He really doesn’t seem all that cocky to me. Shane is cocky. Boston Rob was insufferablly cocky, as was Johnny-Efin’-Fairplay. Terry is pretty confident, but he’s not in-your-face. (Maybe I’m biased-- I’ve never met him, but he’s the cousin of a very good friend of mine.)

45

I can’t speak for the home audience, but from my run-in with one of the show’s editors (see the thread from two weeks ago), he pretty much said that Terry was a major asshole during the show, and all the editors were rooting for Aras. While we may not be seeing that, necessarily, it will definitely impact who votes for him at the end.

46

Jeff even brought up the Car Curse last time (it was last time, right?). He was willing to let the winner of the car trade it away and let everyone else have a car instead, and ? whoever it was chose to keep the car and tempt fate.

47

I really think the “Car Curse” is a bunch of baloney. At least, there’s not enough evidence to suggest it’s actually real.

Assuming the car challenge happens at F5, and assuming everyone has an equal chance to win the car and the game (not usually true, of course), the probability of winning the car AND the game is .2*.2 = .04. In 10 seasons we’d expect to see 10*.04 = .4 people who have won both. 0 is well within the expected range here.

If nobody’s won both after 100 seasons, there might be something there. But I’d still doubt it.

For those that suggest there’s a jealousy element, I submit the following:
[ul]
[li]Had Ian beat Tom in the final immunity, he would’ve won the million.[/li][li]Had Colby not given the game to Tina, he would’ve won.[/li][li]Cindy had no chance of winning no matter what.[/li][li]Eliza had no chance of winning no matter what.[/li][/ul] That’s all I can remember now. But my point is, no one should let it affect their strategy.

48

Jeff even brought up the Car Curse last time (it was last time, right?). He was willing to let the winner of the car trade it away and let everyone else have a car instead, and ? whoever it was chose to keep the car and tempt fate.

49

Sorry for the double post - I got that timed out message.

50

There’s a (4): Deadwood. You can be completely useless, but you get sucked into an alliance that makes it to the end, and – through sheer luck – you wind up in a Final 2 with someone who’s pissed off most of the jury.

51

After reflecting, I take this back. Somebody has to win both the car and the game, so actually it’s .25 that it would be the same person. So we’d expect to see 10*.25 = 2.5 people who had won both. Maybe it’s true after all.

52

.2, not .25, damn it. Time to call it a night.

53

That would be the logical and sensible way to think, yes … but, remember, these are people on a reality show. Logic and sense have no place in Tribal Council, especially after 39 days. Being a good player didn’t help Colby or Stephenie or Twila. Sue Hawk voted to give Richard Hatch a million dollars not because of his gameplay, but because she was pissed at his competitor. Lex voted to give Amber a million dollars just because she wasn’t Boston Rob. Rob Cesternino voted to give Jenna Morasca a million dollars basically for having boobs.

I believe that a marked lack of perspective is one of the requirements for making it onto this show, sometimes. That, and a bottomless capacity for bitterness. It amazes me that there turned out to be so many seemingly cool people in the Palau season.

Yes. “?” = Cindy. Who claimed she didn’t believe in curses, and promptly got voted out at the next Tribal Council by – stop me if you’ve heard this one – a bunch of bitter people with no damned common sense. Basically they said, “Well, you have this awesome prize, and we have nothing, so we’re going to stop you from winning anything else, bitch.” (Although usually the “bitch” part is more gleaned from context than actually spoken out loud.)

In a lot of cases, the winner of the car doesn’t even make it to F2. I’m no good at math – I can’t even balance my checkbook – so I don’t know what that does to your calculations. In the whole history of “Survivor,” the following people have won the car: Colby, Lex, Sean R., Ted, Matthew, Burton, Boston Rob, Eliza, Ian, Cindy, and now Terry. (No car was awarded in the first season.) So far, only Colby, Matthew, and Rob even made it to F2. Discounting Terry, because we don’t know how far he gets, that still leaves only 3-of-7 car winners with even a shot at the million when all is said and done.

Now, me, I don’t believe in the car curse, necessarily, but I do believe in the power of suggestion, and I believe that once Jeff starts suggesting that perhaps winning the car might be enough, it certainly stirs the pot for the rest of the Jury members. Who wants to give even more prizes to someone who already has a cool new car, while at this point the Jury has nothing except their dignity and clean underpants? If I played that hard for that long, and lost out when I was thisclose, I might be bitter, too.

54

I forgot to say last time that no one should let winning the car affect their strategy, but it does. (See above re: suggestion) (also re: bitterness). Which is why I said lo this many posts ago that if Terry was going to lose a challenge, it should have been the Car Challenge.

That said, I hope that Terry is smart enough this week to tank the I.C. so he can get rid of his biggest competition, since the Hidden Immunity Idol is only good until F4. If I were him, I would make it look like I was hanging in there, and then drop out at the last minute. He knows that everyone else knows that he has the Hidden Immunity Idol, so he should actually use it to get rid of someone he wants out. The trick is going to be keeping his damned mouth shut and not letting the Casayas know who he wants out, so it can be a Big Surprise.

Of course, if I were Terry, I would have let someone else win the car. So.

55

Assuming the car is awarded with 5 players left (was 6 this time, don’t know about the past), the winner of the car has a .4 chance of making it to the final 2, again assuming equal chances for everyone (bad assumption, but over time should even out for the most part). 3 out of 7 is .43, which means that winning the car is a sign that you’re marginally more likely to make the final 2 than if you don’t. If the car award has been at 6 players throughout, the probability would be .33, making the actual .43 rate an even better sign for making the final 2. Car winners going 0 for 3 in the final tribal council isn’t really a large enough group to draw any conclusions from.

There is no car curse.

56

Have to question the math there…or at least the phrasing of the question.

  1. What are the odds that someone wins both the car and the million dollars? Okay, I can see that being .2*.2=.04. But…

  2. What are the odds that the winner of the car goes on to win Survivor? That’s just .2, which means one in five, which, out of ten seasons, would lead you to expect it to happen twice. This assumes a) SOMEONE wins the car and b) it happens when there are five survivors left.

Still…is that first one right? I’m pretty sure about the second one…is it just a matter of phrasing?

57

Oops…didn’t realize a second page of responses had already cropped up, and I was replying to a post on the first page. Ignore at will.

58

I’m asking because I apparently can’t count, and I am genuinely interested in this math: how much does it change the result of the calculations if I (correctly) restate that the number of car winners who made F2 was 3-of-10 instead of the 3-of-7 I said earlier? And from looking at the official recaps from CBS, it looks like there are usually 6 players left when they go for the car.

Of course, mathematically, no, there isn’t a car curse – but when was the last time you heard of curses being based in math and not psychology? It’s not so much a curse as it is sour grapes (again, with the bitterness). I understand where you’re coming from, but the fact remains that out of 10 completed seasons so far, not one car winner has won the whole shebang. It’s an interesting statistical anomaly, if nothing else. Although “the Car Statistical Anomaly” doesn’t sound as good rolling off the tongue.

And, again, a lot of the so-called “curse” boils down to someone like Lex or Shane being in a position to determine whether someone else – not Shane or Lex – “deserves” to win a million dollars, after they’ve already won a brand new car and a helicopter ride to wherever and a video from home and did Probst already mention the brand new car? It’s a “curse” because the Juries are usually made up of a bunch of sore losers.

59

I haven’t watched enough seasons to know the numbers, so I’m relying on you for the data. :wink:

3 of 10 car-winners going to the final 2 is 30%, where if the car is awarded with 6 players left, the winner has a theoretical 33% chance of making it to the final 2. So, basically dead on.

The point of doing the math is to show that there’s not even a psychological car curse. There are lots of reasonable explanations for why winning the car might not be good strategy, such as the aforementioned jealousy and spite. However, what the math shows is that this simply isn’t borne out by the facts. Car-winners appear to do as well in making it to the final 2 as anyone else.

In the final 2, car-winners have lost 3 times and won 0. This is a better case for a “curse”, but doesn’t show much. If you flip a coin and get heads 3 times in a row, would you think the coin was rigged? Absent evidence that those guys lost because they won the car (I dunno, of those seasons the only one I watched was All Stars. I don’t think the car had anything to do with that one. Heck, didn’t Amber get a car on that one too when Rob picked her to share the reward?), there’s no reason to think that the car has any impact on your chances to win a million bucks.

60

Yikes. Things have been hectic at Casa De Middleman lately. Between new baby, potential new job and an aborted idea to move, I found myself with limited time. And sadly, this crap season did not rank high enough on the depth chart to get the play button on the old DVR. But things settled down and last night we watched back to back episodes.

While you would be tried as a war criminal at the Hague for playing back to back episodes of this season for a POW, I did it so I could get back on track pointing out the obvious and making lame jokes!

And now, the less anticipated, highly derivative RICH RANKINGS! (Tribe and previous ranking in parenthesis)

FORGOT TO FILE A 1040- I guess you couldn’t outwit everyone!

Tina,Melinda,Misty,Ruth, Bobby,Dan,Nick- Now that there is a jury, we will no longer comment on these losers.

THE BOBBY JON LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD- The Jury deserves a special distinction from those in loser lodge.

Austin- (Jury/LaMina)- Austin clearly votes for Terry.
Sally- (Jerky/La Mina)- Sally also supports Terry.
Bruce- (Tom/Casaya)- Bruce favors Terry. Since I short changed Bruce’s “Very Special Episode” last week, I have composed a Haiku to honor Bruce:

Bruce is a good man.
Bruce is not some Miyagi
Bruce could not make deuce!

Courtney- (Mohawk/Mohak)- Cirie was right. This girl had a $100,000 check with her name on it. I have never seen someone so annoying that the tribe members took out the #2 threat. Jenna Lewis never even earned that. KATIE didn’t even get that dishonor. Since Terry was trying to help her, he might have swayed her vote.

EATING BEEF JERKY- You’re still playing, but you’re praying for a tribe scramble!

Shane- (Rat/Casya)- This week’s episode clearly indicates that Shane is the odd man out. If he doesn’t know it, I could text him on his blackberry.

WHO SAID ANYTHING ABOUT A MERGE?- Middle of the pack players, the lotta ya!

No wallflowers this week.

HEY! LOOK AT HIS MOHAWK-You might make the merge, but you’re grimacing from the jury row!

Empty this week.

LOOKING FOR A BIG TOM TO ENGLISH DICTIONARY- Big Tom has spent more combined days on the show than anyone. But he didn’t quite grab the brass ring.

Danielle- (Mohawk/Casaya)- I think she has moved into the “take to the final two” spot.
Aras- (Jerky/Casaya)- He dodged a bullet. Or rather Cirie pushed him out of the way. I think he intentionally took a dive in that challenege two weeks ago so Cirie would have to pick. C’mon? Terry as the least likely to take care of himself? The fighter pilot who recieved Survival and Evasion training? I’d be just fine with Aras winning this thing.

ARE YOU A RAT OR A SNAKE?- Reserved for a MAXIMUM of two players. You have to be in the driver’s seat for this spot.

Cirie- (Tom/Casaya)- She moves into the Rat/Snake section this week and for the first time, she is not coasting. If Cirie wins, it will not be undeserving. She made a power play this week that helps one person: CIRIE! Wonderful stuff.
Terry- (Rat/La Mina)- Somebody has to stop Terry. He’s a lock for the final four and if he can win out, he will probably get everyone’s vote based on sheer dominance.