But his base dislikes Haley and Rubio, and other possibilities probably have oppo research vulnerabilities not that much less than Vance’s. If Harris opens a big polling lead, Trump’s base would be understanding, but I doubt the numbers will move enough in the next few weeks.
This isn’t something he can do all by his lonesome. The mechanics of it require working with his arguably GOP-normie campaign professionals. I really do not know, but guess they are optimistic and risk-adverse.
I suspect very few have the oppo vulnerabilities of Vance. He is really in a class by himself. Burgum might have some, other than being a weasel, but otherwise just a plain old very rich tech businessman to governor not much likely there. He apparently had been Trump’s choice until Don Jr sold him on Vance.
“You’re fired.” is on brand for strength in Trump world.
Trump has already thrown Vance under the bus, but in a very passive way, saying that the VP choice has almost no effect on the election. In general, Trump seems very low-energy, just barely able to maintain his grip on reality. Thus, I don’t seem Trump ditching Vance at this point. I think that’s a good thing for our side.
That’s right. I’d guess there will be a combination of “Vance resigned for mumble-mumble reasons” with nod-and-wink to the base that Strong Trump Strongly Fired Him.
The Trumpites love that ‘believe two contradictory things at the same time’ stuff.
Having Vance on the ticket is a bad look for Team Trump. Ditching a VP pick in the middle of an election cycle is probably even worse. Either way, picking this troglodyte as a running mate has weakened Trump’s chances with reasonable swing voters.
If Trump was to drop out is there any chance that JD Vance would be the nominee? I assume that the Republicans would be dealing with the exact same kind of chaos they were predicting for the Democrats when Biden dropped out. Faction fights within the party bringing the campaign grinding to a halt. Sort of like the process of selecting a Speaker of the House now that I think about it.
In this hypothetical scenario, I don’t think the JD Vance faction is particularly compelling. But would he insist that the nomination should belong to him? Or in the ultimate display of craven bootlicking, would he offer to remain the VP of whomever prevails? I’d assume any other Republican nominee (Hailey or DeSantis for example) would not take him up on this. Does he go quietly? Or like Dave Chappelle’s version of Rick James, does he stomp his feet while angrily yelling “fuck your couch!”?
I think Vance is now widely perceived as a liability. If there were to be a shakeup in the Republican ticket, I think they’d drop Vance like a hot potato.
That is an interesting hypothetical and not entirely unrealistic, considering Trump’s precarious mental and physical state.
I don’t think there is any way they would go with Vance. The GOP would know it was going to lose and probably would try to pick a candidate that provides maximum damage control for the downballot, etc. They may even go explicitly into a campaign of, “Vote R to provide a buffer against Harris in Congress!”
What would the ultimate opportunist do? Probably stay in and dream of 2028.
I can’t imagine Trump voluntarily dropping out, but he could certainly die or suffer some debilitating illness. And no, I find it very hard to imagine the GOP doing a smooth pivot to Vance the way the Dems were able to.
The GOP would have learned a lesson from the quick Democratic embrace of Harris. The RNC would near-instantly rally around whomever seemed to be the front-runner.
If Trump dropped out due to physical illness, he could name his successor. If he was silenced (severe stroke?), Johnson and McConnell would point the way, maybe to DeSantis.
A smooth pivot, no, but they’d belly flop into it.
Vance was nominated for the VP slot in his own right. Is there any legal means for the GOP to change that at this date?
I mean, if Trump were to drop dead two days before the election, people would still be voting the Trump/Vance ticket, with the understanding that they were effectively voting for Vance. Why would Trump dropping out sooner than that affect the already established ticket? They’d be stuck with Vance, unless he voluntarily dropped out as well.
The RNC could threaten to cut him off from all funding and support, but that would be effectively capitulating the Presidential race to the Democrats. Would they ever take such a huge step?
I think they’d double down on Vance, and hope for a Hail Mary victory, while secretly expecting to get trounced.
Yes; it’s been discussed repeatedly in this thread, though not recently. The RNC has an already-established procedure for replacing a candidate (either for president or vice-president) who withdraws or otherwise becomes unavailable (e.g., dies, is incapacitated, etc.)
If Trump were to somehow no longer be able to run, I don’t believe that their procedure would automatically elevate Vance to the top of the ticket; they would have some sort of emergency conferences to hash out and select a new candidate – during that, they certainly could choose Vance, but they might well not.
FWIW, this is pretty much what happened on the other side, when Biden stepped aside from his re-election campaign. Harris, who was his running mate, as well as being the current VP, wound up becoming the Presidential candidate, but it was not an automatic thing.
Where they may start to run into some issues in the weeks to come is when the names on state ballots get finalized.
If Trump died or withdrew, the resulting power vacuum would suck in the whole clown car of crazies fighting over who can be the most outrageous. Vance might look rational by comparison, but rational ain’t what motivates Republican voters anymore.
Absolutely agreed. Even if it would make strategic sense to quickly fall in line behind an ordained successor, (a) Trump would likely never willingly specifically anoint someone to replace him on the ticket, and (b) such a void would cause a massive feeding frenzy among every single poser who hopes to become the next Trump.
