Fair enough,
Unvote Almost Human
Hopefully she’ll be letting us know when she is back at a reliable connection.
I’m against a mass claim because they tend to only work in an open game setup. As it stands, the scum have zero incentive to claim anything already suspected to exist, and it wouldn’t take much for them to claim later in the order so they weren’t duplicating people.
Then the scum know who all the power roles are and the town has bupkis additional information if the scum are even half-brained.
My vote stands on MHaye. I have a lack of trust.
Total Lost (not a Deadite, according to Cookies): I don’t see a reason to doubt Cookies’ PM.
MHaye claims Questionable Hillbilly: His targets are either unfortunate or scum picking those that cannot be confirmed.
-Night One, pedescribe: as town saving shells; as scum nothing wanted to pick him because possibly protected by a real doctor;
-Night Two and Three, NAF: as town I think investigator was the best bet at that point; same reasoning for scum though since nothing happened to NAF that we heard those Nights. Also dodges a possible protection of Cookies Night Three.
-Night Four and Five, Cookies: I thought MHaye would come with Total Lost (important because Cookies could try to prevent her lynch with it). I didn’t think of the dream connection to nightmare Ash and now MHaye seems to have been he right about Cookies being not just vanilla. But would a scum MHaye risk ‘protecting’ and killing Cookies? MHaye started today with three rollover votes, so maybe an extra gamble to survive another Day.
Zeriel claims vanilla: Either too eager town to help the confirm vanilla plan, or scum knowing NAF won’t live long enough to actually check (DiggitCamara claimed after and got kill priority?). I thinking the former though.
dotchan claims Alpha Redshirt: I think this is true due to Blaster Masters investigate/failed kill Night Two.
brewha: I picked him out in a vote analysis yesterday, but didn’t think a worth a vote (I did briefly because he claimed my analysis wasn’t correct). Today he comes up in amrussells analysis: after Mhaye unvotes, it was Hal 2, MHaye 4 and brewha 3. amrussell concludes Hal got voted off to protect MHaye, but it could also be to protect brewha. Before brewha calls me out of smudging him again: the ‘protection’ votes where from JSexton, Natlaw (me) and special ed, so I’m smudging myself too ;).
Nanook claims a boring role and notes he find most power roles including vanilla scum boring. Becoming a bit more active though, but haven’t got a real read on him.
JSexton: voted for by Almost Human, but she couldn’t really say why. The thing that stands out are his attacks on people who make a case against someone: on Pleonast for his pedescribe for, Hawk for Cookies on both he backed of due to play style differences. Another example Yesterday against amrussells case for brewha.
Of course its his play style, but it has him shooting down cases of others, possible townies, making cases to find scum. Besides the Blaster Master chase, not sure if he otherwise stuck out his neck. Not decided yet if this is a scum sign though, can also be town playing save.
Millit the Frail: No notes except it’s Mrs. and she made a vote spread sheet. A quick look at the votes shows: macey, Diggit, Chucara, BlaM and Nanook. No idea.
Almost Human: Another I’ve haven’t got much on. I’m leaning a bit town because a making a weak JSexton case Yesterday, when votes were all over the place. It would have been saver / easier for scum to vote for someone who already ahd some votes.
Rapier: Noted because he made some cases against me, but one was for calling Pleonast a mason. Probably like a townie like Chucara, but it more a feeling than evidence.
Natlaw: I’m town :).
special ed: Stands a bit out lately due to the tie BlaM vote and the hammer on Hal. But he was also an earlier voter for Hal and posted a reasoning for it the seemed to have some grounds (Hal selective quoting Cookies).
amrussell “We’ve got a fairly narrow pool - let’s work on it”: I’m trying, but it’s getting a long post. Not sure getting an objective opinion here, since he has a similar play style to mine (vote analysis posts, etc) and we got a couple of times of voting the same target.
NAF named him Night Three, but it was just to get a reaction. I can’t find the reason pedescribe voted for him.
I think MHaye got unlucky last Night and will give MHaye the benefit of the doubt for now. So that leaves maybe a scum in the rapid voting yesterday, but if I have both MHaye and brewha leaning town (latter for macey vote), then scum stayed out of it.
So no vote yet :(, but I’m going to look at Millet, Almost Human and Nanook again based on that.
On updating my vote count: Hockey Monkey, are you sure you unvoted Almost Human?
On Millit: both Day Four and Five she went after lurkers (BlaM, Hal and Nanook). Generally she asks questions and gives reasons for her votes, so nothing that stands out.
On Almost Human: Bit less townie feel than Millit, but nothing scummy. So I’m still leaning town, for reason mentioned above.
I’ll leave Nanook for tomorrow and adding Rapier to the list to look at, since I still haven’t found a good place for my vote.
[oog]I’ve just come back from a day of intensive ante-natal instruction, involving several diagrams and indeed photos. All I’m going to say is, that is some trippy shit right there. Tomorrow, I’m in a team away day (i.e. no posting from work) so this is the last posting session for me until c.3 hours to Dusk.)[/oog]
Despite that lack of time, and only slightly worried by how little posting there’s been toDay, I’m going to take a look at JSexton, starting off with some of his own advice about finding scum, taken from:
Day/Night One:
Point 1: Scum will try to act townie. This is important, because I submit ahead of time that JSexton has acted somewhat townie, most especially in posts on game theory and in attacking bad ideas.
But there’s more to finding scum than just realising they will act townie:
So, hypothetically, if JSexton were scum, he might consider drawing some attention to himself, in order to appear more like a townie. Of course there are difficulties:
That puts the kibosh on that then, doesn’t it? We can clearly rule out any idea that **JSexton **would have considered drawing attention to himself as a way to appear as a headstrong but loyal townie rather than a conniving, skulking scum. (I know what some of you are thinking. You’re thinking, what if he not only did it, but he went out of his way to explain to people that he’d never do it? Damn, you people are cynical.)
Besides, it’s not like he did anything to draw attention to himself. Aside from this, earlier:
Why on earth would JSexton, who by his own reckoning has played over 50 games, ever place a vote without an explanation? He’d have to know that it’s the sort of thing that would garner attention. As indeed it did. Several people asked him about it. It was even the basis for **Cookies **vote on him. (Not long after, of course, **bufftabby **- scum - would vote for **Cookies **on the basis of that vote, calling it weak.)
So far, this isn’t really anything. Just a faint suspicion. For the rest of the Day, **JSexton **is mainly concerned with pushing **Pleo **over his calling out of pede’s slip. This is a reasonably townie thing to do, although as it turns out Pleo is not only town but gets scum killed that night. (Let’s hope he didn’t give anything away in his conversation with JSexton!) What’s interesting about this little chapter is JSexton’s description of his own style of play:
Bear this in mind as we go through the remaining Days.
**
Day/Night Two:**
Day Two was of course dominated by Hawkeye vs Cookies; Night Two by NAF’s claim. It started off with three dead bodies - one of them scum. Here’s JSexton’s take on that:
Two points here. One, it’s easy to suggest what people should do, and it sounds damn helpful. It’s even better though, if you do it. Secondly, note the scum behaviours we should be looking for: a) interacting with known scum and b) not interacting with known scum. Now, let me be clear: I agree that you can’t hold scum to just one behaviour. But I find it interesting that a player who would later have a go at me for suggesting that more than one behaviour could be used to profile scum would himself have made a very similar post earlier in the game. There is a difference, of course: I attached names to my “scum tells” and attempted to show some reasoning whereas **JSexton **just tells us to look for scum in the north, the south, the east and to the west somewhat.
In any case, it isn’t long before our pitbull gets his teeth into Hawkeye, who has gone back and looked at people’s interactions and non-interactions with macey. His first post is the beginning of what will surely be a tenacious challenge and is coupled with a vote. And there is some back and forth between the two. But here’s JSexton’s third post in this conversation:
Our pitbull has given up, because he can see a townie motive as well as the scummy one that originally had him biting down. He doesn’t consider Hawkeye town, mind you. But he’s going to unvote him.
Day/Night Four
After a quiet Day/Night Three (only four posts) we start Day Four. **Cookies **has posted her PM and is getting flack for capitalisation. In response to dotchan’s suggestion that we do some analysis, we have this enthusiastic endorsement:
It’s good when a player says things like this, because you know that that player will be a font of analysis, challenges and ideas. Here’s where we start:
It’s good when players say things like this, because you know they’re going to do a review of Total Lost.
Again, warning us not to trust Total Lost. At this point, this could very easily be the concern of a cautious townie. At any rate, we then kill Blam and find he’s the missing PFK. That should let Total Lost off the hook, right? Well, yes and no:
She’s probably alright, but in the meantime, here’s a little smudge to keep you worried. This would be less suspicious if it were followed up by a review (to set those fears at rest) but we’re still waiting for that.
Of course Day Four was a big day for JSexton, both in terms of posting and catching PFKs. He went after **Blam **hard and didn’t let go, pushing him on all his slips and refining his case until he’d pretty much nailed him. Good pitbull behaviour. That we hadn’t/haven’t seen on any other Day. And it happened to be on a PFK. The contrast between his play style on this Day and on every other Day could not be more marked. It’s like reading a different player.
Day/Night 5
This is an interesting Day, because it’s here I began to notice the contradictions. Not coincidentally, **JSexton **started interacting with me more toDay, mainly in a critical/suspicious fashion.
Contrast this with “someone should look at everyone who interacted with **macey **and bufftabby, and everyone who didn’t.” There’s nothing I’m being picked up for here that **JSexton **hasn’t *explicity *condoned or promoted earlier. Except it’s scummy when I do it. Also, note that I’m becoming a target of interest. It can’t be long before we see some pitbull action, right?
Around this time, I make my case against brewha. **JSexton **leaps in to knock it down. Mainly by attacking me:
Again: “everyone who interacted with **macey **and bufftabby, and everyone who didn’t.” Secondly, apparently scum now have clearly defined behaviour we can use to identify them. This is a complete about-face on his Day One scum-hunting pep-talk.
This is what JSexton said about the **macey **vote on Day Two:
Finally there’s this:
Now, the timing of this vote is suspicious, because this was the beginning of the swing back to **Hal **which led to his lynch. But note what he says about me. Two questions:
- Where’s my pitbull challenge? I actually made a point of engaging with JSexton’s earlier criticisms, but I’ve heard nothing back. Not even the “difference in playstyles” concession that **Hawkeye **got. It feels like I’m just being kept on the boil. 2) Many people have publicly voiced suspicion of me, including two of our confirmed town. Frankly, I thought there was a good chance they’d swing my way at the last minute. But it’s certainly true that **Hal **is a likelier candidate at this point; even a wishy-washy vote could easily be enough to push him over the edge. For scum, why not go for him first and keep me for later?
So,
Because he’s talked a good game, but produced very little;
Because the one exception to this is the attack on the PFK;
Because he’s smudged me for following his reasoning on finding scum;
Because he’s contradicted himself on brewha/macey and on what scum do and don’t do;
Because he hasn’t lived up to his admitted pitbull status, but instead has smudged and hinted and even gone two Days with no vote:
I’m going to:
unvote MHaye
vote JSexton
As for a mass claim…I can see both sides but am going to take the **against **position.
In theory: a loss/benefit comparison comes out as a wash, IMHO. We would narrow down the pool of unknowns, which would help us with voting. However, the remaining power roles would have giant targets painted on their heads, and scum have been gunning hard for the power roles.
In practice: I’m generally against mass claims on principle, so I fall slightly on the side of against. In this game, as someone wisely pointed out, no role so far has been straightforward. There’s too much room for creativity, and scum could all too easily come up with something to claim.
So, um, did I kill this game somehow, or what?
Speaking of creativity and false roles, I actually like the idea of testing MHaye’s claim toNight. I’ve been teetering on the edge between voting for him (all the obvious, popular reasons) and defending him (that PM looks SO real to me, and something was fishy last Night regarding Cookies’ death). Hence, I’ve kept really quiet and left my vote on Nanook. (I still think we should lynch Nanook, btw. Let’s not let him off the hook for disappearing again.) If MHaye is not really the Hillbilly, then he’ll simply get Vigged, and we’ve bagged ourselves a scum. If he is the Hillbilly, the Vig will be frightened off and we’ll have confirmation. MHaye will then be a powerful addition to our Masonry, and he will be un-nightkillable until he actually protects a townie from a scum kill. It’s a great role to have, and one that I’d be sorry to lose. The evidence against him is good, but not so good I’m willing to risk this role. If he is scum, he’ll be dead either way.
Cons, as far as testing MHaye: What if we don’t have a Vig? I propose that the Vig should claim tomorrow to confirm MHaye–if he’s still alive. The whole plan does risk outing the Vig. But the risk of finding scum is worth it. I think there’s a decent chance that the Vig won’t have to claim, because MHaye will die.
Pros: If MHaye dies, and we lynch a scum toDay, we can get TWO kills in one fell swoop. It allows us to concentrate on other players toDay, assuming he either dies or is confirmed toNight. That’s the big upside. I’m not usually for telling the Vig what to do, but I think it works here due to the mechanics of MHaye’s claimed role. If there is no death and it turns out there is no Vig, then we’ve lost nothing. You all can lynch MHaye tomorrow, though I’m probably still not going to feel good about doing so myself.
The two supporters of this plan so far are JSexton, who has racked up some votes (I think amrussell’s, in particular, is fair but misguided; more on that later), and hawkeyeop, an almost dead townie with no vote. So this isn’t popular. But I’m going back it anyway, because I think it’s a worthwhile course of action.
I updated the spreadsheet, by the way, and I’ll be back with some vote analysis and a possible vote change in a bit.
Wait what am I in favor of? I don’t advocate testing Mhaye. I believe Mhaye and would rather focus our resources elsewhere.
NETA: I look like I’m contradicting myself there, so let me clarify: When I said “I think there’s a decent chance that the Vig won’t have to claim, because MHaye will die,” I chose a poor word: “decent.” That implies I think it’s more than likely he’s scum. And then I go and say I won’t vote for him tomorrow.
:smack:
“Decent” is one of those words I overuse, and by “a decent chance,” I just mean “a chance.” Maybe it’s a colloquial thing. To be more precise, I think there’s a <50% chance he’s scum and a >50% chance he’s the Hillbilly, and that’s why I won’t vote for him. Sometimes I feel it’s 30/70, sometimes it’s 49/51.
Sorry! For some reason, I took “I didn’t really expect to say this, but Mhaye rationale makes sense” as you saying that JSexton’s idea about MHaye making sense. I was just skimming (I admit it) through the thread while making the end of my post to see who else wanted to do the test. Apologies for misrepresenting you.
Maybe you confused me with Hawkeye, Millt? Last paragraph of Post 38.
I really dont’ see a downside to a test - except giving scum one more day to live if he is scum and there is no vig.
We’ll only have a confirmation of his power (or some other protective power Scum or otherwise), not his alignment.
vote Nanook
Because I’m not buying that “bored with the game” explanation to why he’s been low participation.
And crap, I knew the Day ended Tuesday, but with the frigid weather closing school and the holiday today, It didn’t really feel like Monday.
Our masons are voting for MHaye. our ‘confirmed’ total isn’t voting. for that reason, and my general mistrust that’s been stated in other posts, I’m going to vote MHaye. This might seem like a big change,but yesterDay, I did try voting for MHaye until our confirmed abandoned it. Then I went back to my own independent thinking. I may well do that before deadline again after spending some time re-reading.
I’m not confident we have a Vig. I’m also not confident in an open attempt on **MHaye **proving anything.
Also, As for the claiimg, I’m going to vote ambivalent. It’s probably too late to get it before Day ends anyway at this point.
No, actually, I didn’t see you. Oops. Anyway, I think my point stands–it’s not a popular idea, but I like it.
Hey…uh…apologies for being so quiet, there really hasn’t been much to discuss. I’m going to look over special ed soon, see if I can find anything.
So is that a ‘no’ on the player list, storyteller?
Well if he is scum. If he is town we waste a vig hit and his first protection. Plus, the scum might be able to also target Mhaye, and somehow get Mhaye to kill the Vig, and make Mhaye a vanilla.
If not, unvote Almost Human.
Very good. I was expecting something like this after my attack on you yesterday, but I didn’t expect it to be so thorough. Really, it’s very well put together. It’s wrong, of course, but the logic behind it is sound. I’m going to answer all of the above with one simple thing: I’ve consistently been attacked and lynched on this site because I come from a more aggressive mafia environment, even though I don’t think I’ve ever actually been scum here. I made a conscious decision this time to tone it down in a big way. I decided this before I got my role PM, in fact, I made mention of it in the signup thread.
What you’re seeing is in fact evidence that I’m not playing like myself. You’re exactly right. But it’s not because I’m scum. It’s because playing like a pitbull simply doesn’t work here. All it does is force a mislynch on me.
Now, getting back to what I said, I was expecting an attack from you, and I was expecting that attack to solidify my opinion that you were scum. I was holding off voting you in anticipation of it. Funny thing, though: it didn’t. It’s very well-researched, and the things it’s seeing aren’t manufactured attacks. They are things that a strong townie analyst would see. So, you’ve just made a huge jump from the scum column to the town column. I’m putting this out there in the event that I end up mislynched anyway, despite trying to avoid it, and I don’t want you to get backlash for it. I mean, if this is a scum performance, then bravo, you deserve the win. I don’t think it’s the case.