Result! It’s interesting to see how scum can make us all doubt ourselves, though.
Moving on, I want to check I understand Natlaw’s suspicion list. Are you saying that I did **more **to save MHaye than the people who drove the last-minute Hal lynch that saved him?
Yeah…we have no other evidence on possible cover roles, since the board went down before macey would have realistically posted his.
I’ll need to roll back and check the timing, but didn’t you unvote Mhaye to vote JSexton fairly late Day Six?
God, I just realized who I’m acting like! I’m the Incompetent Obstructionist Cop!
I’m the one who can act as suspicious as possible because I have a badge! (mason confirmation) I’m the one who can’t find the guy for ages, even though the hero comes in and sees it right away! (NAF and MHaye) I’m the one who goes and frames two innocent people who simply look suspicious, swatting away any attempts to calm me down! (Cometothedarksidewehavecookies and Hawkeyeop) I’m the moron who will lower his gun as soon as the villian starts talking! (BlaM and MHaye)
If this trend continues, I’ll be killed as soon as I start to become useful, simply to show that this “shit is getting serious”. And any genre savvy person is either killed off immediately after attaining said state, or lives to the end. I have a feeling I won’t be waking up on day 7. Oof…
Depends. Are you just days away from retirement?
No. That’s good, at least.
Well, I had considered that Story had written the PM. But, the dig is that the PM was kinda over the top. If Story writes a fake role claim that isn’t believable - it’s worse than writing non at all. I just thought that if Story had written it, it would have been more realistic. Maybe I’m looking too much into it.
But remember, a fake role PM is already over and above a cover role. If he made perfectly realistic and non-counterclaim-guaranteed fake role PMs, the scum would have a huge edge from the beginning. Either we’d have to have some immense power roles, or some huge numbers to counter that effect.
I think I’m on to something, and I’m going to make this vote early.
First of all, unvote Nanook.
I made a case against special ed yesterDay but didn’t change my vote. Everything that’s happened since then makes me positive that I’m on the trail of a scum. My previous case:
“Special ed threw out a lot of “me too” votes yesterday and nailed the coffin shut on Hal…who was town. Changing your vote repeatedly to go the way the town is going strikes me as trying not to be held accountable for your votes. That’s mega-suspicious to me. Special ed is also a champion bandwagon jumper, voting for the “winner” every Day but Day 4, when he put in a last-minute and non-game-changing vote for 2nd-place Hal.”
All of that still stands. But…now look at special ed’s votes for MHaye:
He voted MHaye on Day 5…RIGHT BEFORE MHaye’s roleclaim. Less than an hour, in fact. It was THE last vote before the claim. It was a safe vote, because he KNEW there was going to be a claim. And he did it to gain townie cred right before the big reveal. He changed his vote to Hal along with everyone else, also, and we know what happened there. He could have left it alone, because his vote didn’t change anything, but he couldn’t have a rollover vote in case we kept going after MHaye on Day 6.
Then on Day 6, he changed his vote to MHaye later in the Day, when there was little to no prospect of him surviving the noose. This is bussing if I’ve ever seen it.
AND…to top it all off, MHaye’s final parting vote was a shot in special ed’s direction. Well-put-together and nicely reasoned, but also a complete throwaway. This is textbook Mafia-covering-Mafia behavior, and I DO think MHaye would pull it.
Altogether, I hope we’re closing in on the scum, and I think this is our best bet for lightning to strike twice in a row. I’m not going with my gut; I’m reading the votes. It’s there.
Vote special ed
So, you’re saying I’m Scum and that I’ve helped bus 2 of my fellow Scum?
Because, I also voted for **Macey **early on, even when there was ample opportunity for me to vote otherwise. Mostly because I felt it was our best case.
I also made a case for Hal on Day 5, but switched to **MHaye **when I felt our confirmed Town were going that way. When that whole ‘confirmed block’ collapsed, even after pleading with them to show some leadership, I went back to my vote for Hal. It was a poor choice, but I felt at the time he was the most Scummy.
I can’t help it if **MHaye **voted for me as he was going down, but I don’t see how that can be anything more than a null tell.
It’s true some of my votes have had some ‘me too’ characteristics, That doesn’t include macey, who I voted for for my own reasons, having played with him on FB quite a few times, or my votes on 2 different Days for **Hal **were also from my own reasoning. Voting for the PFKs were well discussed, so if it’s a ‘me too’ I can’t help it if I agree with some of the arguements others make. Though, to be honest, I did try to postpone a lynch of Blam
**MHaye **had been well examined and I agreed that he was our most likely suspect. When a case is well examined, I’m not always going to be able to come up with additional reasons for voting for someone.
So, yeah, every Day but Day 4, I did vote with the Town. That includes the elimination of 2 Scum, 1 PFK, and 2 Town.
PS, where did the voting spreadsheet go? Google Docs tells me it’s not published. So I can’t easily read the votes anymore 
Something else occurs to me–we know that MHaye was not a protector, but an investigator. Thus, we know that the paradoxical situation with Cookies was not caused by an undetectable nightkill/full-on protection situation.
Does MHaye’s status as an investigator open up a new possibility for what happened last night?
Special ed: You voted 4th for macey, which is somewhat to your credit, but the idea that this was a bus vote is not outside the realm of possibility. Now, if you had been the first or second voter, or if you had voted for him when he was tied with someone else, that would probably be enough for me to unvote you. But a 4th vote on Day 1 could have been insurance to point back to from later in the game, as well as bussing.
I also want to say…in Mafia 3, one of my only two previous Mafia games, scum voted for each other every time a scum went down. I believe they all voted for each of the others, in fact, but I’m not going to go back through that game now! A scum bussing 2 fellow scum is neither unprecedented nor illogical.
As for the spreadsheet, I screwed it up somewhere and copy-pasted something over something else, and I made changes before realizing it…ugh. I need to rewind whatever changes I accidentally made and catch up to where we are in the game. And then I want to check it to make sure I’m not making up phantom votes or leaving stuff out. Give me a day and I’ll try to get an accurate version up. A few players have done some great vote timelines in-thread, so those might suffice meanwhile. Sorry guys. I’m still not so good with Google’s Excel knockoff.
I thought there were just over 24 hours to go when I changed my vote, but I think I got the time-differences wrong and it was actually a bit less than that. For what it’s worth, my plan was to come back and vote for MHaye if things were tight, but I forgot that I had a breastfeeding class that evening. (Yes, guys go to them too. No, this is not negotiable. Don’t mention that it intereferes with a game you’re playing. Always obey the pregnant woman. I pass on this knowledge for your own good, having bought it dearly.)
Anyhow, the idea that this change of votes was “defensive of MHaye” and not “this close to lynching a different scum” relies on knowing JSexton’s alignment. Notwithstanding his “soft voice turneth away wrath” response to my case, I’m leaving my vote on him for now.
If you’re wondering, JSexton, I appreciate the vote of confidence but I don’t feel you’ve addressed all the inconsistencies I bought up.
My ordering was based on the following: if I mentioned you for Day Five or Day Six +1, for both +2, pushing Hal over Mhaye Day Five +1, unvoting MHaye Day Six +1. So that gives you and me three points, of course I know for sure I’m town so that says nothing about alignment on its own, but I’m using it as a priority who to look at first.
I thought Rapier42 was already suspicious of me, so I’m not sure why he picked you over me. You based a vote for brewha on a vote analysis of mine, but added your own reasons. Rapier didn’t do it quite as much as I’m not convinced that your ‘poo-flinging’ is a scum tell - I even see it more as town trying to find scum (but scum would try to look town, so null tell). I haven’t reread the actual cases you made yet to see if they were scummy on their own.
I’ve been thinking about my analysis and especially why didn’t MHaye vote to save himself? And since he didn’t, why would other scum try to save him? And if they didn’t, my analysis would point to the wrong people.
Millit thinks MHaye voted to build credit for special ed, but another possibility is he didn’t want Nanook or JSexton lynched instead of him (if they’re scum, they got far less suspicion than he had).
I would guess now that is was some conflict by a power Cookies gained that Night that triggered if she was killed, but it’s pure speculation.
Finally back home with a reliable internet connection so starting tomorrow I’ll post a lot more content (right now I just need an IV drip full of tea - I hate travelling)
pede, if you’re the dumb cop I must be the dumb rookie because I really didn’t think MHaye was scum. Didn’t think macey was either.
I’ve officially lost all mafia gumption so this evening I’m going to start afresh, reread everything and hopefully come back tomorrow with something useful.
The possible claim was more that was hoping to get home before Dusk to change it in case you did.
Why were you willing to vote Hal to protect MHaye Day Five, but not Nanook Day Six?
On Day Five you said you did not find Hal particularly scummy, but voted for him anyway. You encouraged Nanook to post more, but you also have said that you think lurking is anti-town.
Day Five you voted Hal when he was two votes behind, while Day Six you could have done the same with Nanook (who would have been 3 votes behind if Hockey Monkey had voted correctly).
You seemed to be in favor of mass claiming and/or vigilante testing to verify MHaye, in this post, instead of lynching him.
Two reasons. I found Hal a bit scummy, but not strongly so. I don’t find Nanook scummy at all. I would have placed a vote somewhere, at least, if it wasn’t for reason #2: I wasn’t around. I normally do most of my posting at work, but I wasn’t at my desk yesterday morning, so I hadn’t seen the thread between the previous night until after the lynch.
I don’t think it’s very outlandish to imagine that if the scum came out to save **MHaye **on Day 5, they’d have been very circumspect about saving him on Day 6. With at best 3 and probably 2 scum who *weren’t *MHaye, the exposure would be pretty high.
It was probably worth saving him on Day 5 because he was an investigator and getting one more investigation in would be pretty valuable. We can guess he investigted Hal; that leaves 4 more. If we’re lucky, that list is mainly people we’ve already lynched or they’ve already night-killed (I think **Cookies **stands a good chance of falling into the latter category); if we’re not, of our 11 unconfirmed we can expect scum to know themselves and 3-4 others, giving them a power-role pool of 5-6 (assuming they haven’t found them already.) Under those circumstances, a mass-claim that pulls (say) three vanillas out of that pool won’t do us any favours.
That’s assuming that there are many valuable power-roles left. I’m developing a nasty suspicion that **Cookies’ **claims of mysterious others lurking in cornfields and silently communicating with her were merely attempts at misdirection - that it was she who developed the “considerably more than vanilla” powers that she assigned to others. We surely can’t have any investigators left. We may yet have a protective role; we may yet have a Vig; we may have something else. But I think we’re past the point of hoping for a big power role reveal that hands us the game. Which is a good thing. But what we do need to do is keep talking.
Point 1 I’ve talked about already.
Point 2: Blam was the lynch I felt most strongly about. I’m not going to apologize for that. However, I’d like to note that I also attacked macey day 1 for being ridiculously scummy. I didn’t ride her as hard as Blam, because it wasn’t necessary - nobody needed convincing. Yes, of course I could have just been bussing macey, but it’s not true that the only strong attack I amde was on a SK.
Point 3: I think here you’re misinterpreting what I was saying. When I said it would be good to analyze those that interacted with bufftabby and macey (and those that didn’t), I’m not saying that both of those actions are automatically scum tells. All I was saying is that it’s easy to get caught up in doing a PBPA and thinking that’s all there is to it. Context is important. For example, say a player is on a “lynch the lurker” hunt, and calls out two of the three lowest posters. If it later turns out that the the missing player is scum, well, maybe that’s a good indicator that the lurker hunter is also scum, due to the failure to call the scum lurker out. That’s what I was referring to, because it’s not something that would be apparent from just searching someone’s posts.
It’s not remotely the same as calling people scum for opposite reasons.
Point 4: Related to the above. I don’t think there’s any contradiction there at all. Again, it’s all about context. Regarding brewha’s vote on macey, there’s a difference between hopping on a wagon, and starting one. Brewha isn’t totally cleared in my mind, but then, no one is totally cleared in my mind. Which brings me to
Point 5: What you call smudging, I call caution. The only confirmed townies are dead townies. We have someone cop-cleared? Could be godfather. We have uncountered claimed masons? One could be a traitor. I’ve lost too many games to assuming someone is 100% cleared, and I won’t hesitate to correct someone if they’re getting too casual with suspicion. Do I consider the masons and Total Lost to be very likely town? Of course. It doesn’t mean they’re unlynchable if the right evidence comes out, however.