I’ve read some vague spoilers about this one too, and if even half of it is true, we’ll be getting some serious answers tonight, at least mythology-wise.
Here are my predictions, just for the heck of it, and spoiler-boxed, since it’s all based on the previously mentioned spoilers, interviews, and especially the two “sneak peek” scenes:
[SPOILER]I predict guest star Allison Janney, credited only as “woman,” will be the “original Jacob,” who is perhaps the physical embodiment of the Island itself. The pregnant woman seen in sneak peek #1 is Jacob/MIB’s mother, shipwrecked on the Island (of course). At some point, maybe in childbirth, young mom dies and Janney’s character raises Jacob and MIB as her own. Later, when they’re about 12, Jacob and MIB discover they aren’t the only ones on the Island (sneak peek #2). These “Others” are either the survivors of birth-mom’s shipwreck, or native Islanders (meaning Janney’s character lied when she said she was alone).
And here I begin officially pulling theories from my posterior. The Others live at either the statue or the temple, and serve an ancient, dark god: none other than Smokezilla. Maybe they are “claimed” by Smokey in much the same way Sayid, Claire, and Crazy French Lady’s team will eventually be.
MIB becomes lured to the dark side by the Others, and turns against his “crazy mother” and Jacob. MIB is somehow killed – maybe by Jacob – and Smokey is then able to take on his form, absorbing his memories and experiences, just as he will do with Locke centuries later. Ergo, the MIB (Titus Welliver) we have seen so far is not the original guy any more than his current incarnation is John Locke. It is Smokezilla itself that is “evil incarnate.”
Since we know Jacob/Smokey end up the sole inhabitants of the Island, that means everyone else dies, probably by killing each other (a scenario that will repeat itself through Island history). Janney’s character may die as well, passing the mantle of Island Protector to Jacob. He is charged with making sure Smokey, now in the form of his dead brother, never escapes the Island.
Two big questions I haven’t addressed: who made the Frozen Donkey Wheel (and why), and what are the “rules” of the game Jacob/MIB are playing with humanity? I honestly haven’t a clue on either, but I can’t wait to find out![/SPOILER]
Now, in only a few hours, I get to see how spectacularly wrong I am.